Imran Khan Niazi must be a very frustrated politician these days. Just when the founder — leader of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party was riding the peak of a wave of public accolades as the next White Knight for his troubled country, came the Memogate scandal and the NATO bombing of a Pakistan Army border checkpost. The resultant hue and cry snatched the media spotlight and public attention in Pakistan away from Imran and his party.
The country’s three leading political parties, the PPP, PML-N and MQM, must be heaving a sigh of relief. They were stunned at the huge turnout for a PTI rally at Lahore’s vast Iqbal Park on October 30.
What spooked the national parties was the large proportion, some observers put it at over 60%, of youth and women who showed up at the Lahore meet. With almost one-quarter of the country’s population falling in the 15 - 24 age bracket, the youth vote can be a significant swing factor in the next general elections in 2013.
Till now, the PTI has been a marginal player in Pak politics, although it was launched back in 1996. It scored a duck in the 1997 elections, won only the Mianwali seat in the 2002 and boycotted the 2008 elections. So, what accounts for the sudden surge in popularity for the 59-year-old Khan?
According to Pakistani analysts, it is a combination of a rise in unemployment of educated youth, increasing disgust for corruption among establishment politicians and growing numbers of a professional middle class who are seeking a change. In Imran, who has maintained a clean personal image , the youth and middle class have discovered a messiah.
Can he fit the bill? Analysts point out that the PTI does not have a sizeable political cadre. In order to beef up his party strength, Imran has had to induct the detritus from the very mainline parties whom he scorns. The latest high profile addition, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Pakistan’s voluble ex-Foreign Minister, quit the PPP after being dropped in the recent Cabinet reshuffle. It is rumoured he first courted the PML-N but after being rebuffed by Sharif, chose to hitchhike on the PTI wagon.
Then there is the question of raising election funds. Being a lone MP from his party gives him very little clout to manoeuvre funding for his party through political favours. Businessmen will not be eager to open their purses and bid on a wild card.
“Some powers are pushing him to the centre stage but he does not fit in the country’s power structure. No one can go far politically without Senate support. He has no one there. At best he will bag 20 seats,” Chaudhry M Saeed, former president, Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry), told a reporter of Dawn.
It will be interesting to see how Imran negotiates his as yet tiny political craft between the Scylla and Charybdis of Pakistan — the military and the mullahs. In a recent interview with Karan Thapar for the channel CNN-IBN, he firmly stated that if ever he was the prime minister, the Army would be subordinate to the civilian government. How long a rope the Deep State gives him when he is actually in the hot seat remains a matter of conjecture.
As for dealing with the bearded ones, he has kept a low profile, though his espousal of the rights of women and minorities must not have endeared him to them. He has, however, been quite outspoken against fundamentalists like Fazlur Rehman , chief of Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam.
In his speeches and interviews, Imran has been quite unequivocal about the need for Pakistan to follow an independent foreign policy and not one that is subservient to US interests in the region. However, with his inclination to develop close links with the Chinese, it is to be hoped that, when in the saddle he does not steer Pakistan from imprisonment in one bloc to another.
Regarding India, Imran shows no difference in attitude from other Pak politicians as far as Kashmir goes and labels it a core issue. But, he has indicated his regime will favour friendship, dialogue and commerce, rather than sabre rattling. If one were to believe what he told Karan Thapar in the interview for CNN-IBN, he is in favour of disbanding all militant groups, even the anti-Indian ones in all their avatars.
Imran Khan comes out as a politician in the post-Independence Jinnah mould of non-sectarianism and development of the country as the goal. Pakistan desperately needs such leadership now as the country plummets into chaos churned by a failing economy, sectarian strife and terrorism.
The author is a commentator on public affairs
The country’s three leading political parties, the PPP, PML-N and MQM, must be heaving a sigh of relief. They were stunned at the huge turnout for a PTI rally at Lahore’s vast Iqbal Park on October 30.
What spooked the national parties was the large proportion, some observers put it at over 60%, of youth and women who showed up at the Lahore meet. With almost one-quarter of the country’s population falling in the 15 - 24 age bracket, the youth vote can be a significant swing factor in the next general elections in 2013.
Till now, the PTI has been a marginal player in Pak politics, although it was launched back in 1996. It scored a duck in the 1997 elections, won only the Mianwali seat in the 2002 and boycotted the 2008 elections. So, what accounts for the sudden surge in popularity for the 59-year-old Khan?
According to Pakistani analysts, it is a combination of a rise in unemployment of educated youth, increasing disgust for corruption among establishment politicians and growing numbers of a professional middle class who are seeking a change. In Imran, who has maintained a clean personal image , the youth and middle class have discovered a messiah.
Can he fit the bill? Analysts point out that the PTI does not have a sizeable political cadre. In order to beef up his party strength, Imran has had to induct the detritus from the very mainline parties whom he scorns. The latest high profile addition, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Pakistan’s voluble ex-Foreign Minister, quit the PPP after being dropped in the recent Cabinet reshuffle. It is rumoured he first courted the PML-N but after being rebuffed by Sharif, chose to hitchhike on the PTI wagon.
Then there is the question of raising election funds. Being a lone MP from his party gives him very little clout to manoeuvre funding for his party through political favours. Businessmen will not be eager to open their purses and bid on a wild card.
“Some powers are pushing him to the centre stage but he does not fit in the country’s power structure. No one can go far politically without Senate support. He has no one there. At best he will bag 20 seats,” Chaudhry M Saeed, former president, Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry), told a reporter of Dawn.
It will be interesting to see how Imran negotiates his as yet tiny political craft between the Scylla and Charybdis of Pakistan — the military and the mullahs. In a recent interview with Karan Thapar for the channel CNN-IBN, he firmly stated that if ever he was the prime minister, the Army would be subordinate to the civilian government. How long a rope the Deep State gives him when he is actually in the hot seat remains a matter of conjecture.
As for dealing with the bearded ones, he has kept a low profile, though his espousal of the rights of women and minorities must not have endeared him to them. He has, however, been quite outspoken against fundamentalists like Fazlur Rehman , chief of Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam.
In his speeches and interviews, Imran has been quite unequivocal about the need for Pakistan to follow an independent foreign policy and not one that is subservient to US interests in the region. However, with his inclination to develop close links with the Chinese, it is to be hoped that, when in the saddle he does not steer Pakistan from imprisonment in one bloc to another.
Regarding India, Imran shows no difference in attitude from other Pak politicians as far as Kashmir goes and labels it a core issue. But, he has indicated his regime will favour friendship, dialogue and commerce, rather than sabre rattling. If one were to believe what he told Karan Thapar in the interview for CNN-IBN, he is in favour of disbanding all militant groups, even the anti-Indian ones in all their avatars.
Imran Khan comes out as a politician in the post-Independence Jinnah mould of non-sectarianism and development of the country as the goal. Pakistan desperately needs such leadership now as the country plummets into chaos churned by a failing economy, sectarian strife and terrorism.
The author is a commentator on public affairs