(Reuters) - The arrest of an American man for killing two Pakistanis has created the worst crisis in years between uneasy allies in Washington and Islamabad, threatening the war in Afghanistan and the stability of the Pakistani government.
U.S. officials are putting heavy pressure on Pakistan's fragile government to secure the release of Raymond Davis, a former special forces soldier who they say is a U.S. consular employee with diplomatic immunity.
Davis, whose precise connection to the U.S. government has not been officially confirmed, shot two men on a Lahore street last month during what he said was a robbery attempt.
President Asif Ali Zardari's government is reluctant to add fuel to a fiery anti-American mood in Pakistan and has said local courts must decide. With Islamist militants seeking to capitalize on the Davis case, Washington must be careful not to undermine Zardari as it seeks a swift resolution.
"The stakes here are huge. Pakistan is key to the war with al Qaeda and the war in Afghanistan," said Bruce Riedel, a former senior CIA analyst who led President Barack Obama's review of U.S. policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2009.
Here are several scenarios for how the Davis case could unfold and effect U.S.-Pakistan ties:
DAVIS FREED BUT AT WHAT PRICE FOR PAKISTAN?
Analysts in the United States see little chance that Davis will be convicted and kept in Pakistani custody, saying a solution eventually will be found.
Islamabad has good reason to want the problem to go away.
A major recipient of U.S. military aid, Pakistan needs the help to equip soldiers fighting militants who have waged war against the government since 2001. Pakistan also has relied on U.S. aid to help it recover from natural disasters and to battle widespread poverty.
With that in mind, the Zardari government may lean hard on Pakistan's Foreign Ministry to certify that Davis does have diplomatic immunity from prosecution in local courts.
The Lahore High Court, which has said it will follow the Foreign Ministry's guidance, would then declare that Davis can be released, ending a threat to multibillion-dollar U.S. aid.
But the government, already facing public anger for tacitly backing U.S. drone strikes on militants in tribal areas, could pay a heavy price if it is seen caving in to U.S. pressure over the Davis case.
"If this happens then there will be a storm, everybody will be involved ... but the most effective response will come from the Taliban and al Qaeda," said Pakistani political analyst Khalid Ahmed. "This is a very good opportunity for them to increase their acceptance among the people."
On Friday, protesters in Lahore and other cities demanded Davis be tried in Pakistan. Some of the demonstrators burned U.S. flags.
One U.S. official said the Pakistani government's reaction had been colored by the anti-government protests sweeping the Middle East and the fear that they could spread to Pakistan.
U.S. officials are putting heavy pressure on Pakistan's fragile government to secure the release of Raymond Davis, a former special forces soldier who they say is a U.S. consular employee with diplomatic immunity.
Davis, whose precise connection to the U.S. government has not been officially confirmed, shot two men on a Lahore street last month during what he said was a robbery attempt.
President Asif Ali Zardari's government is reluctant to add fuel to a fiery anti-American mood in Pakistan and has said local courts must decide. With Islamist militants seeking to capitalize on the Davis case, Washington must be careful not to undermine Zardari as it seeks a swift resolution.
"The stakes here are huge. Pakistan is key to the war with al Qaeda and the war in Afghanistan," said Bruce Riedel, a former senior CIA analyst who led President Barack Obama's review of U.S. policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2009.
Here are several scenarios for how the Davis case could unfold and effect U.S.-Pakistan ties:
DAVIS FREED BUT AT WHAT PRICE FOR PAKISTAN?
Analysts in the United States see little chance that Davis will be convicted and kept in Pakistani custody, saying a solution eventually will be found.
Islamabad has good reason to want the problem to go away.
A major recipient of U.S. military aid, Pakistan needs the help to equip soldiers fighting militants who have waged war against the government since 2001. Pakistan also has relied on U.S. aid to help it recover from natural disasters and to battle widespread poverty.
With that in mind, the Zardari government may lean hard on Pakistan's Foreign Ministry to certify that Davis does have diplomatic immunity from prosecution in local courts.
The Lahore High Court, which has said it will follow the Foreign Ministry's guidance, would then declare that Davis can be released, ending a threat to multibillion-dollar U.S. aid.
But the government, already facing public anger for tacitly backing U.S. drone strikes on militants in tribal areas, could pay a heavy price if it is seen caving in to U.S. pressure over the Davis case.
"If this happens then there will be a storm, everybody will be involved ... but the most effective response will come from the Taliban and al Qaeda," said Pakistani political analyst Khalid Ahmed. "This is a very good opportunity for them to increase their acceptance among the people."
On Friday, protesters in Lahore and other cities demanded Davis be tried in Pakistan. Some of the demonstrators burned U.S. flags.
One U.S. official said the Pakistani government's reaction had been colored by the anti-government protests sweeping the Middle East and the fear that they could spread to Pakistan.